The Trump Endgame..

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From Robert Reich, former labor secretary and political pundit:

This morning I phoned my friend, the former Republican member of Congress.
ME: So, what are you hearing?
HE: Trump is in deep sh*t. 
ME: Tell me more. 
HE: When it looked like he was backing down on the wall, Rush and the crazies on Fox went ballistic. So he has to do the shutdown to keep the base happy. They’re his insurance policy. They stand between him and impeachment.
ME: Impeachment? No chance. Senate Republicans would never go along
HE (laughing): Don’t be so sure. Corporate and Wall Street are up in arms. Trade war was bad enough. Now, you’ve got Mattis resigning in protest. Trump pulling out of Syria, giving Putin a huge win. This dumbass shutdown. The stock market in free-fall. The economy heading for recession. 
ME: But the base loves him.
HE: Yeah, but the base doesn’t pay the bills. 
ME: You mean …
HE: Follow the money, friend. 
ME: The GOP’s backers have had enough?
HE: They wanted Pence all along.
ME: So …
HE: So they’ll wait until Mueller’s report, which will skewer Trump. Pelosi will wait, too. Then after the Mueller bombshell, she’ll get 20, 30, maybe even 40 Republicans to join in an impeachment resolution. 
ME: And then?
HE: Senate Republicans hope that’ll be enough – that Trump will pull a Nixon.
ME: So you think he’ll resign? 
HE (laughing): No chance. He’s fu*king out of his mind. He’ll rile up his base into a fever. Rallies around the country. Tweet storms. Hannity. Oh, it’s gonna be ugly. He’ll convince himself he’ll survive. 
ME: And then?
HE: That’s when Senate Republicans pull the trigger. 
ME: Really? Two-thirds of the Senate? 
HE: Do the math. 47 Dems will be on board, so you need 19 Republicans. I can name almost that many who are already there. Won’t be hard to find the votes.
ME: But it will take months. And the country will be put through a ringer. 
HE: I know. That’s the worst part. 
ME: I mean, we could have civil war.
HE: Hell, no. That’s what he wants, but no chance. His approvals will be in the cellar. America will be glad to get rid of him. 
ME: I hope you’re right. 
HE: He’s a dangerous menace. He’ll be gone. And then he’ll be indicted, and Pence will pardon him. But the state investigations may put him in the clinker. Good riddance.

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Watergate reporter Carl Bernstein said Sunday that Republicans are coming to a "much greater consensus" that President Trump is unfit to be president following the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. Bernstein, appearing on CNN's "Reliable Sources," said there is concern that Trump is "unfit on psychological grounds" as well as unfit "because of his contempt for the law" and because of his "conduct of foreign policy." “What the Mattis letter has done in a monumental way is to push Republicans into making some real judgments. They’re talking to each other, there is coming to be a much greater consensus that he is unfit to be the President of the United States," Bernstein said.

Bernstein: More Republicans beginning to believe Trump 'unfit to be the president' | TheHill

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But Steinberg went on to write that he deems it “highly unlikely” that the Senate would also vote to remove Trump from office — a move he notes would require a defection against the president of at least 20 GOP senators. “That is highly unlikely, regardless of how compelling the impeachment case may be. All but five of the 53 GOP senators represent solid Republican Red states,” he continued. “Their incumbency will not be threatened by their vote against removal of the president. Each such senator runs a serious risk, however, of a pro-Trump primary election challenge if he or she supports the removal of Trump from office.”


“There are only two years left in Trump’s presidential term. With his approval ratings in an abysmal state, and the forthcoming recession making it near impossible for Trump to stage a political recovery, it appears most likely that he will use the continuation of his presidency as a bargaining chip,” Steinberg wrote. “Accordingly, before the end of 2019, Donald Trump will resign from the office of the presidency: He will do this pursuant to a deal with the U.S. Justice Department, the incoming President Mike Pence, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, the New York Attorney General’s Office, and the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office,” he continued. For what he called a possible Trump departure, Steinberg predicted Trump would resign to then be pardoned by Vice President Pence.

Former Bush adviser on Trump: He won’t be removed, but will leave presidency in 2019 | TheHill

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Let me list the four categories as each appears, in bolded section heading:

• Trump has used the presidency for personal enrichment. 
  
• Trump has violated campaign finance law. 
  
• Trump has obstructed justice. 
  
• Trump has subverted democracy. 
  

Leonhardt explains in detail, with supporting material, each of these assertions.

‘What are we waiting for?’: NYT columnist David Leonhardt calls for Trump’s immediate removal from office in scathing editorial – Alternet.org

This is NYT columnist David Leonhardt arguing for Trump's removal on the basis of violations of his oath under these four headings and the argument that the cost of removing him are smaller than the cost of letting him stay on.