Interesting week Sept. 19 2016

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Differences by education are not new in American politics. We've seen a pattern developing since the 1960s. The higher your income, the more likely you are to vote Republican. The best educated, though, tend to vote Democratic. It's a war between interests and values. The wealthy are defending their (conservative) economic interests. The well-educated are defending their (liberal) cultural values. What happens to high-income voters who are well-educated? Sociologists call them "cross-pressured," meaning pulled in different directions. If they vote their interests, they vote Republican. If they vote their values, they vote Democratic. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney was the prince of wealth and President Barack Obama was the prince of education. They represented two intensely competitive elites that have been at war for decades. Both attended Harvard University, which is in the business of producing elites. Democrats have been worrying about their party's weakness with working-class whites. But working-class whites are not nearly as dominant as they used to be. Non-college whites were 65 percent of all voters in 1980, 54 percent in 1988 and 36 percent in 2012. This year, it's Republicans who have the far bigger problem.

Why so many red states are turning blue—commentary

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A professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 told The Washington Post that 2016 was the hardest election to predict yet. But he has come to a decision on who is most likely to win — Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Professor Allan Lichtman, who wrote the book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House," uses a series of true/false statements to determine his predictions. He considers things like incumbency, the economy, social unrest, scandals, and charisma to figure out which way the election is likely to go.

Lichtman told The Post how the system works: "The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of 'true' always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House.

And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years." Still, Trump is such an unusual candidate that he might break the American political mold that has held for decades.

Professor who has predicted elections for decades says Trump will win - Business Insider