Some reasons why climate change is likely
1) CO2 is a greenhouse gas
Nobody (that I know of) disputes this
2) CO2 levels in the atmosphere
The level of CO2 in the air has risen pretty dramatically since the industrial revolution, that is, since we're starting to burn fossil fuels on a large scale
3) Measurement wiggle room
Whilst 1&2 are not in dispute, if you though greenhouse gasses in the air on an industrial scale that gets the CO2 levels up, alterning the composition of our atmosphere, it's not idiotic to expect this will alter climate
However, there is some wiggle room when we actually try to measure these effects as:
4) Alternative explanations
Basically all alternative explanations for recent climate change come up short (see here)
5) Scientists
However, the large majority of the specialists in the field see little wiggle room and argue it's highly likely most of it is due to our activities rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
6) Credibility
Why wouldn't we trust the scientists?
Large scale conspiracies to obfuscate the truth or even alter it altogether by a scientific community are unprecedented. However, to exaggerate the benefits and downplay the harms is routine business in industry (which is why we have the FDA to assess claims about medicine, the SEC regulating stock markets, Accountacy firms checking accounts etc. etc.)
So if there is a conspiracy to obfuscate the truth I think the latter one is orders of magnitude more likely. Cigarette companies still argued 20 years after they knew better that smoking wasn't harmful, that lead in gasoline wasn't harmful, etc. etc.
1) CO2 is a greenhouse gas
Nobody (that I know of) disputes this
2) CO2 levels in the atmosphere
The level of CO2 in the air has risen pretty dramatically since the industrial revolution, that is, since we're starting to burn fossil fuels on a large scale
3) Measurement wiggle room
Whilst 1&2 are not in dispute, if you though greenhouse gasses in the air on an industrial scale that gets the CO2 levels up, alterning the composition of our atmosphere, it's not idiotic to expect this will alter climate
However, there is some wiggle room when we actually try to measure these effects as:
- Measuring 'global' temperature consistently over a large period of time isn't entirely straightforward
- Climates are complex adaptive systems that behave in non-linear and unexpected ways
4) Alternative explanations
Basically all alternative explanations for recent climate change come up short (see here)
5) Scientists
However, the large majority of the specialists in the field see little wiggle room and argue it's highly likely most of it is due to our activities rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
6) Credibility
Why wouldn't we trust the scientists?
- We do so on most other fields of life, and at our great benefit (when we're ill, we're going to a doctor, etc.)
- If there is a vast conspiracy of climate scientist with some type of political agenda, it really is a first. Can anybody name any other conspiracy of a whole scientific community, let alone one on this scale?
Large scale conspiracies to obfuscate the truth or even alter it altogether by a scientific community are unprecedented. However, to exaggerate the benefits and downplay the harms is routine business in industry (which is why we have the FDA to assess claims about medicine, the SEC regulating stock markets, Accountacy firms checking accounts etc. etc.)
So if there is a conspiracy to obfuscate the truth I think the latter one is orders of magnitude more likely. Cigarette companies still argued 20 years after they knew better that smoking wasn't harmful, that lead in gasoline wasn't harmful, etc. etc.