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Republican nomination, ok, but Donald for President?
#1
Here is Piers Morgan, the one time stand in of Larry King


Get over it, GOP, this is Trump's tipping point. He's going to be your candidate. And here are ten reasons you might as well lie back and enjoy it

By PIERS MORGAN FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 12:43 EST, 24 February 2016 | UPDATED: 21:21 EST, 24 February 2016

Trump is unstoppable. At least as far as the race to win the GOP nomination goes.
It’s time for the Republican Party to drag their horrified, appalled, in-denial Ostrich heads out of the sands stretching across America from Malibu to the Hamptons and admit what everyone else can see is the bleeding obvious.

The billionaire tycoon’s huge win in Nevada, his third on the bounce, is by far the most significant and for three reasons which fully justify Trump’s claim to be ‘winning, winning, winning’:
[Image: 31807E2100000578-3462406-Donald_Trump_is...071110.jpg]
Donald Trump is unstoppable. At least as far as the race to win the GOP nomination goes.  It’s time for the Republican Party to drag their terrified, appalled, in-denial Ostrich heads out of the sands stretching across America from Malibu to the Hamptons and admit what everyone else can see is the bleeding obvious

1) For the first time in the 2016 Primary season, as Politico reported, polls show that a majority of the voters, 57%, declared that they were ‘angry’ with their federal government.

2) More than 3/5 of the Nevada caucus-goers said they favour a NON-politician, someone from outside the traditional Washington political establishment, to be their president.

3) He won with Hispanics, by a massive margin – gaining more Hispanic votes than Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and they are both Hispanic!
He even beat Cruz with Evangelicals, which is a bit like me winning a beauty contest against Ryan Reynolds.
Add it all up and last night’s victory amounts to a seismic, broad-based endorsement of Donald J. Trump.

In Nevada Trump won with Hispanics, by a massive margin – gaining more Hispanic votes than Marco Rubio (left)  and Ted Cruz (right) and they are both Hispanic

This wasn’t just one small step on the path to the nomination; this was one giant leap for the Trump electoral machine.
People no longer see him as a novelty candidate. It’s become OK to admit you’re backing him.

Put it this way: Nevada is the epicentre of gambling in the world, and if I were a betting man I would now be heading down to Vegas to slam every dollar I have on him wrapping up this race pretty damn quickly.
The problem for the GOP is that – unlike the voters - most of the people at the head of the party view Trump as nominee with the kind of horror with which I would react to hearing that Madonna was baby-sitting my children.
I think this sentiment is misguided, because I believe Trump now represents by far their best chance of winning a general election.

Here are 10 reasons why:

1) Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite to be Democrat nominee, is terrified of Trump. Forget all her bullish rhetoric, she now knows that in a straight fight for the White House, he’d be the worst kind of vicious, smart, unpredictable and populist opponent. Look how she instantly backtracked on branding him anti-women when he retaliated by going nuclear on Bill Clinton’s infidelities.

Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite to be Democrat nominee, is terrified of Trump. Forget all her bullish rhetoric, she now knows that in a straight fight for the White House, he’d be the worst kind of vicious, smart, unpredictable and populist opponent. Look how she instantly backtracked on branding him anti-women when he retaliated by going nuclear on Bill Clinton’s infidelities

2) Trump is utterly fearless. Punch him and he’ll punch you harder back. He’s confronted everyone and everything from China and ISIS to John McCain and the Pope – and done so with an unshakeable verve and gusto which has had even his most bitter enemies shaking their heads in silent appreciation.

3) He’s not Ted Cruz. If you think Trump would be a dangerous president, then trust me, he’s not even first base of menace compared to the extreme right wing zealot from Texas. Consider their relative positions on illegal immigrants: Trump wants a wall to stop more of them pouring into the country; Cruz wants every one of the current 12 million illegal immigrants living in America deported. One is a more draconian version of existing policy, the other is cruel, inhumane madness.

4) He’s not Marco Rubio. As much as desperate GOP chiefs are now trying to big up the pint-sized, baby-faced senator, the truth is that he comes over as an inexperienced, amateurish little nerd who can’t even drink a bottle of water without looking weird. Hillary would eat him for breakfast and spit him out for lunch.

5) Trump calls a spade a spade. There is, whether you love him or loathe him – and the entire world now appears to be firmly locked into one of those two camps – an indisputably refreshing candour to his public speaking. Trump doesn’t care for politic niceties, he just calls it how he says it. That plain-talking is resonating powerfully. Americans are fed up with Washington types spewing politically-correct platitudes whilst talking and behaving entirely differently behind closed doors.

6) He stands up to the media. I was filming a documentary in Texas and Florida last week and was struck by how many people in those states cited to me Trump’s refusal to be dictated to or trampled on by the news media, both TV and print, as a reason they would vote for him. He’s even waged war with Fox News, something no other Conservative candidate would have previously ever dared to do. By doing so, he’s reinforced his independent ‘heroic outsider’ credentials.

7) He’s paying his own way. Trump’s repeated reminder that he doesn’t need donor cash because he’s so loaded himself is a powerful asset. The message is crystal clear: ‘I can’t be bought.’ Compare and contrast to Hillary Clinton, who spends much of her time taking big cheques from the likes of Goldman Sachs. This will be a huge battleground if the race turns out to be a match-off between the two of them.

8) He works hard and has been massively successful – the very currency of the American dream. Nobody can doubt that Trump puts the hours in, displaying extraordinary energy for a guy who lives off three hours sleep a night. Running for president is tough. But so is president, as Barack Obama’s grey hair can testify. Trump is also a brilliant negotiator, and half the battle in politics is having the ability to do deals. He’s done it all his life, and been transparently skilled at it.

Trump has a great potential First Family. Trump’s wife Melania is beautiful, elegant, and a legal immigrant who represents the very epitome of the American dream. Trump’s children are equally impressive, especially his daughter Ivanka who I know well and is a highly intelligent, classy young working mother. Optics matter in presidential races and the Trumps look great standing together on a podium

9) He stands up for regular Americans. They see in Trump someone who will fight their corner. Hence his carefully crafted comment last night, ‘I love educated people and I love poorly-educated people’. I’ve walked around the streets of New York with Trump and he has an almost mesmeric appeal to working-class blue collar Americans despite his immense wealth. That’s because he never talks down to them, instead he trashes those like the bankers of Wall Street who he slams for ‘wrecking’ the livelihoods of ordinary Americans. Trump, to them, is Robin Hood not the Sheriff of Nottingham.

10) He has a great potential First Family. Trump’s wife Melania is beautiful, elegant, and a legal immigrant who represents the very epitome of the American dream. As she said last night about her path to U.S. citizenship: ‘I followed the law, I never thought to stay here without papers.’ Trump’s children are equally impressive, especially his daughter Ivanka who I know well and is a highly intelligent, classy young working mother. Optics matter in presidential races and the Trumps look great standing together on a podium.

Above all, Trump is a winner, who doesn’t just talk the talk but walks the walk.

Very few people gave him a prayer of winning the GOP nomination when he entered the race eight months ago – except Donald Trump.
Now those same doubters, including many Republicans, insist he hasn’t got a chance of beating Hillary Clinton in a general election.
They were wrong then, and they are wrong now.

As his thumping victory in Nevada has shown: you should never bet against Donald Trump.
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#2
Quote:Capitol Hill Democrats are beginning to get worried about Donald Trump. Congressional Democrats, writes the Hill, were once convinced that a nomination for outsider Trump would be a godsend for their party. But some are now warning that a general election fight against the real-estate mogul won’t be a cakewalk. Trump’s unorthodox message and populist appeal, Democrats say, could erode their hold on working-class support and jeopardize their chances in a year when voter disenfranchisement with Washington is felt nationwide.
Democrats start to worry about Trump’s appeal - MarketWatch

In a way it's curious, the US recovery from the financial crisis has been much better than almost anywhere else, private sector job creation has been as good or better than during other presidencies, but Democrats are fearful they're going to lose a substantial part of the working class vote to Trump? A couple of possible explanations:
  • While the recovery has been good and job creation brisk, wages have been stagnant (but they have been stagnant from the 1970s, basically)
  • Right-wing media have inculcated that this is the weakest recovery on record and the jobs figures (like the inflation figures) are doctored
  • Inequality and stagnant wages has only now (post financial crisis) become an issue
  • Trump also has appeal with the working class because of his outsider status, his anti-immigration, anti-globalization, and anti-Muslim stance..
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#3
I think it's a bit of all of the above. We have Trump like people in Europe and the main draw there is the anti-immigration, although that goes together with 'political correctness' and elites as a theme. Inequality isn't really as much a theme in Europe, basically because it's less unequal and wages haven't been stagnant for so long.

In one way, it's curious to see inequality rising as a theme in the US as it has been much more tolerant of inequality, regarding it as some form of natural outcome and as long as people could, by their own devices and efforts, rise to the top (the 'American Dream') it was tolerated. 

But it has become increasingly clear the game is rigged..
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#4
Voter turnout could be a worry for Democrats if one compares the record turnout in the Republican primaries to the Democratic ones. For instance, Trump won more votes in Michigan in a four-way race than Sanders did in a two way race.

And on the Democratic side it's mostly Sanders who enthuses voters to turn up, and he is still expected to lose. Clinton inspires little enthusiasm, which could be a problem come the general election.

However, if, as now looks all but certain, Trump becomes the Republican nominee then this might very well inspire the anti-Trump people to come out and vote. We already see record Latinos registering to vote just to vote against Trump..
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#5
Don't count him out. If it becomes obvious (insofar it isn't already) that he's unstoppable as the Republican nominee, most of the party will get behind him and he will moderate his tone in certain aspects. Whether that will be enough to win the presidency remains to be seen, but given the lack of enthusiasm Hillary inspires on the other side, he's certainly in with a shot.

In essence, he's a sales man, a wheeler dealer who does what it takes to close the deal. Yes, this is ironic, as disgust about unprincipled and self-serving behavior is one of the things that has driven a swath of the electorate towards outsiders who are supposedly more principled..
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#6
Quote:The problem for the Democrats is that Clinton’s prowess with minority voters won’t necessarily win her the big swing states that will push the Electoral College victory one way or the other — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and some smaller ones. It is precisely here that Trump’s appeal to white blue collar voters could tip the scales and turn many of these states red in 2016. Combine this with the enthusiasm factor that is making Republican voter turnout higher than usual in the primaries, while Democratic numbers are lagging, and you have a plausible case for Trump, if he is the nominee, beating Clinton.
Which one do you hate the least? Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? - MarketWatch
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#7
Here is an interesting tidbit..

Quote:A recent USA Today poll suggests nearly one in four Republicans would defect to the Democrats if the general election was a contest between Hillary Clinton and Trump. Just seven per cent of Democrats would head the other way. It’s no wonder that prominent pollster Stan Greenberg has said the Republicans are in a state of civil war.
Meet Katie Packer - the extreme Republican desperate to stop Donald Trump
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#8
A sigh of relief..

Quote:The team at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics threw its usual caution to the wind on Thursday and took its best guess at how the 50 states and D.C. would break when Electoral College votes are parceled out, assuming the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominates Trump. It’s not a pretty picture for Republicans. Writing on the Sabato’s Crystal Ball website, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley summed up the results this way: “Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close.”
Electoral map shows Clinton routing Trump - Business Insider
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#9
Quote:The case for a Trump victory in the fall is that he'd bring out new, alienated voters and would win over disaffected white Democrats and independents and others, including married women, who admire his strength. This, the theory goes, would offset losses among African-American and Latino voters. In the Bloomberg poll, conducted by J. Ann Selzer, Clinton beats Trump among independents, a bloc where she has done poorly in the primaries, 54 percent to 34 percent. Mitt Romney, the Republican loser of the 2012 presidential election by four points, carried independents 50 percent to 45 percent.
The Case for Trump Over Clinton Is a Loser - Bloomberg View
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#10
Quote:Does Trump forget that all his personal attacks on Bill Clinton were litigated and re-litigated in the 1990s? And what was the final verdict? On his last day in office, Clinton’s job approval rating was 65 percent — the highest such rating for a second-term president in the history of polling.

Lest we forget what preceded that unprecedented positive verdict: seven years of media-hyped investigations by 20 Republican congressional committees and an independent counsel, costing taxpayers over $70 million. (In the ’90s, Trump himself dismissed the seriousness of these attacks).

The verdict, when all was said and done?

After the House of Representatives voted for impeachment on virtually a strictly partisan, party-line vote, the U.S. Senate — with 55 Republicans voting — refused to support by a majority vote even one of the four House charges.

Fact No. 2: Bill Clinton is currently one of the most popular individuals in public life in the United States. See, for example, one of the latest 2015 year-end polls as to his continuing popularity among a wide spectrum of voters. His popularity has been enhanced by his post-presidency good works through his foundation in this country and around the globe.

Fact No. 3: Polls show that such personal attacks on her husband have historically helped Hillary Clinton’s popularity among most Americans, including Republicans and conservatives.
Thank You, Mr. Trump--Keep Attacking the Clintons

But it does look like that decades long smear campaign is dulling Hillary's appeal at least to some extent.

How many Benghazi inquiries have we had already?..
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