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Acceleration - stpioc - 03-21-2016

Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists

February 2016 was likely the hottest month in thousands of years, as we approach the 2°C danger limit.
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February 2016 global surface temperature anomalies. Photograph: NASA GISS
“Stunning,” “wow,” “shocker,” “bombshell,” “astronomical,” “insane,”“unprecedented”– these are some of the words climate scientists have used to describe the record-shattering global surface temperatures in February 2016.


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[url=http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/mar/21/current-record-shattering-temperatures-are-shocking-to-even-climate-scientists#img-2]NASA GISS global monthly (red) and 12-month average (blue) surface temperatures as compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Illustration: Dana Nuccitelli

It’s difficult to see any ‘pause’ or slowdown in the global warming over the past 50 years.
To put the current temperatures into context, prior to last October, monthly global surface temperatures had not been more than 0.96°C hotter than the 1951–1980 average, according to Nasa. The past 5 months have been 1.06°C, 1.03°C, 1.10°C, 1.14°C, and 1.35°C hotter than that average, absolutely destroying previous records. Estimates from Noaa are in broad agreement with those from Nasa.
Right now, the Earth’s average surface temperature is hotter than it’s been in thousands of years; potentially even longer.

How much of a role is El Niño playing?
We’re currently at the peak of a very strong El Niño event, which has brought warm water up to the ocean surface. That’s certainly played a major role in the current record-breaking temperatures. The hottest years are almost invariably years with El Niño events, although 2014 was the first year in decades to set a temperature record without an El Niño.
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Global warming taking place at an 'alarming rate', UN climate body warns
Read more


For comparison, the current El Niño event is very similar to a previous one in 1997–1998. That event made 1998 by far the hottest year on record at the time, and it’s why contrarians often cherry pick temperatures over the past 18 years – the abnormally hot 1998 was 18 years ago.

However, the past 6 months have been 0.43°C hotter than the corresponding months in 1997–1998. So clearly, while El Niño is a big contributor to the current record-shattering temperatures, human-caused global warming is playing a major role as well. Climate scientist Michael Mann attributed the record to approximately 50% human influences, and 50% a combination of El Niño and natural weather fluctuations.

Are temperatures approaching dangerous levels?
Last December, 195 countries signed the COP21 international climate agreement in Paris. Graham Readfearn summarized the agreement for The Guardian:

Quote:[i]The guts of the agreement hang off the so-called “long-term goal” that commits almost 200 countries to hold the global average temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.[/i]

Depending on how exactly we define “pre-industrial,” February temperatures were between 1.5 and 2°C hotter than those in pre-industrial times. So, we’re already starting to tread on thin ice, in the range that the global community has deemed dangerously hot.
However, since we’re at the peak of an El Niño, as they did after 1998, global surface temperatures will temporarily go back down once this event is over. That is, until human-caused global warming pushes them up to and beyond these temperatures once again in the near future. As climate scientists Steve Sherwood and Stefan Rahmstorf wrote,

Quote:[i]This is the true climate emergency: it is getting more difficult with each passing year for humanity to prevent temperatures from rising above 2. February should remind us how pressing the situation is.[/i]

A glimpse at the consequences of global warming
In the meantime, we’re getting a glimpse at the future climate consequences of our carbon pollution. Just to name a few, Africa is being battered by heat and drought, with more than 36 million people facing hunger across the southern and eastern parts of the continent as a result. Droughts in Vietnam and Zimbabwe have cost these countries 4% and 12% of their GDP, respectively.Arctic ice is in poor shape as a result of the region’s warmest-recorded winter. Australia has been breaking heat records as well, with 39 consecutive days in Sydney above 26℃ (double the previous record). And a massive coral bleaching event appears likely on the Great Barrier Reef.

These are some of the reasons why temperatures 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial levels are considered dangerous. This intense heat is not good for agriculture, ice, sea levels, or coral reefs. There’s still time for us to prevent such high temperatures from becoming the norm, but that time is running out.

Fortunately there’s been some good news that we may be on the verge of getting carbon pollution and global warming under control, but we have to continue with this progress and avoid reversing it. People seem to be grasping the problem just in time: a record number of Americans (41%) now see global warming as a threat, and almost two-thirds realize that humans are responsible.California is providing a blueprint for solving the problem, as the state’s carbon pollution has fallen despite a growing population, as its economy has thrived.

We’re capable of solving the climate problem, but with temperatures already approaching dangerous thresholds, the time to act is now.


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 03-31-2016

And some more acceleration..

Quote:For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles hanging over human civilization. The great ice sheet, larger than Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a relatively small amount of global warming, and capable of raising the sea level by 12 feet or more should it break up. But researchers long assumed the worst effects would take hundreds — if not thousands — of years to occur. Now, new research suggests the disaster scenario could play out much sooner. Continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases could launch a disintegration of the ice sheet within decades, according to a study published Wednesday, heaving enough water into the ocean to raise the sea level as much as three feet by the end of this century.
Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly - The New York Times


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 04-19-2016

From Bloomberg

Earth's Temperature Just Shattered the Thermometer

Only three months in, and 2016 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record.

April 19, 2016

Tom Randall

The Earth is warming so fast that it's surprising even the climate scientists who predicted this was coming.

Last month was the hottest March in 137 years of record keeping, according to data released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It's the 11th consecutive month to set a new record, and it puts 2016 on course to set a third straight annual record.

Now, it might seem premature to talk about setting a new yearly record after just three months of data, but these months have been such an extreme departure from the norm that Gavin Schmidt, who directs NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has already made the call.

"I estimate [a greater than] 99 percent chance of an annual record in 2016," Schmidt wrote on Twitter last week, after NASA released its own record climate readings. A month ago—following the release of February's data—Schmidt wrote, simply, "Wow."

Since 1980, the world has set a new annual temperature record approximately every three years, and 15 of the hottest 16 years ever measured are in the 21st century. The chart below shows earth's warming climate, measured from land and sea, dating back to 1880.

The March data follows the hottest winter on record worldwide. Results from the world’s top monitoring agencies vary slightly, but NASANOAA, and the Japan Meteorological Agency all agree that 2016 has no precedent in the modern climate record.

The map below, from NASA, shows how the heat was distributed across the globe. The most extreme heat swept the Arctic, where winter ice levels were at the lowest on record for this time of year. In Greenland, ice melted so fast scientists initially thought their calculations might be wrong.

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NASA GISS

To be sure, some of this is the result of a monster El Niño weather pattern lingering in the Pacific Ocean. But the broader trend is clear: We live on a planet that is warming rapidly, with no end in sight. Since 1980, the world has set a new annual temperature record roughly every three years, and 15 of the hottest 16 years ever measured are in the 21st century. Now the hottest winter on record is turning into the hottest spring—the beginning of something grimly new.

Watch Next:

A Brief History of Global Warming


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 08-16-2016

How about a war on climate change? 

The rationale for that seems much bigger than a war on terrorism, for two reasons:
  • Terrorism actually doesn't kill that many people in the US.
  • The war on terrorism can easily become counterproductive, serving as a recruitment banner for terrorists.
And climate change needs tackling, a little reminder, war terminology and all:

Quote:In the North this summer, a devastating offensive is underway. Enemy forces have seized huge swaths of territory; with each passing week, another 22,000 square miles of Arctic ice disappears. Experts dispatched to the battlefield in July saw little cause for hope, especially since this siege is one of the oldest fronts in the war. “In 30 years, the area has shrunk approximately by half,” said a scientist who examined the onslaught. “There doesn’t seem anything able to stop this.” 

In the Pacific this spring, the enemy staged a daring breakout across thousands of miles of ocean, waging a full-scale assault on the region’s coral reefs. In a matter of months, long stretches of formations like the Great Barrier Reef—dating back past the start of human civilization and visible from space—were reduced to white bone-yards

Day after day, week after week, saboteurs behind our lines are unleashing a series of brilliant and overwhelming attacks. In the past few months alone, our foes have used a firestorm to force the total evacuation of a city of 90,000 in Canada, drought to ravage crops to the point where southern Africans are literally eating their seed corn, and floods to threaten the priceless repository of art in the Louvre.

The enemy is even deploying biological weapons to spread psychological terror: The Zika virus, loaded like a bomb into a growing army of mosquitoes, has shrunk the heads of newborn babies across an entire continent; panicked health ministers in seven countries are now urging women not to get pregnant. And as in all conflicts, millions of refugees are fleeing the horrors of war, their numbers swelling daily as they’re forced to abandon their homes to escape famine and desolation and disease.
We Need to Literally Declare War on Climate Change | New Republic


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 09-17-2016

Trump's election might very well spark the death of the Paris climate deal..

Quote:In a year of record-setting heat on a blistered globe, with fast-warming oceans,fast-melting ice caps, and fast-rising sea levels, ratification of the December 2015 Paris climate summit agreement—already endorsed by most nations—should be a complete no-brainer. That it isn't tells you a great deal about our world. Global geopolitics and the possible rightward lurch of many countries (including a potential deal-breaking election in the United States that could put a climate denierin the White House) spell bad news for the fate of the Earth. It's worth exploring how this might come to be.
Why a Donald Trump Victory Could Make Climate Catastrophe Inevitable | Mother Jones


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 09-28-2016

Inexorably rising..


Quote:In the centuries to come, history books will likely look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate. At a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.
That all but ensures that 2016 will be the year that carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 ppm mark, never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists.
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Because carbon pollution has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution and has shown no signs of abating, it was more a question of “when” rather than “if” we would cross this threshold. The inevitability doesn’t make it any less significant, though.

September is usually the month when carbon dioxide is at its lowest after a summer of plants growing and sucking it up in the northern hemisphere. As fall wears on, those plants lose their leaves, which in turn decompose, releasing the stored carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. At Mauna Loa Observatory, the world’s marquee site for monitoring carbon dioxide, there are signs that the process has begun but levels have remained above 400 ppm.
The World Passes 400 PPM Threshold. Permanently | Climate Central


RE: Acceleration - stpioc - 10-14-2016

Quote:The sharp decline in Arctic sea ice area in recent decades has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a warming-driven collapse in total sea ice volume — to about one quarter of its 1980 level.

Unfortunately, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. The accelerated loss of Arctic sea ice drives more extreme weather in North America, while speeding up both Greenland ice sheet melt (which causes faster sea level rise) and the defrosting of carbon-rich permafrost.
A collapse in Arctic sea ice volume spells disaster for the rest of the planet


RE: Acceleration - Admin - 10-23-2016

Meanwhile, in Greenland..

Quote:The ice sheet is so big—at its center, it’s two miles high—that it creates its own weather. Its mass is so great that it deforms the earth, pushing the bedrock several thousand feet into the mantle. Its gravitational tug affects the distribution of the oceans

Just in the past four years, more than a trillion tons of ice have been lost. This is four hundred million Olympic swimming pools’ worth of water, or enough to fill a single pool the size of New York State to a depth of twenty-three feet. An ice cube left on a picnic table will melt in an orderly, predictable fashion. With a glacier the size of Greenland’s, the process is a good deal more complicated.

There are all sorts of feedback loops, and these loops may, in turn, spin off loops and sub-loops. For instance, when water accumulates on the surface of an ice sheet, the reflectivity changes. More sunlight gets absorbed, which results in more melt, which leads to still more absorption, in a cycle that builds on itself. Marco Tedesco, a research professor at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, calls this “melting cannibalism.”

As moulins form at higher elevations, more water is carried from the surface of the ice to the bedrock beneath. This lubricates the base, which, in turn, speeds the movement of ice toward the ocean. At a certain point, these feedback loops become self-sustaining. It is possible that that point has already been reached.
Greenland Is Melting - The New Yorker


RE: Acceleration - Admin - 05-07-2022

Quote:Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon surged to record levels for the month of April, nearly doubling the area of forest removed in that month last year – the previous April record – preliminary government data has shown, alarming environmental campaigners. In the first 29 days of April, deforestation in the region totalled 1,012.5 square km (390 square miles), according to data from national space research agency Inpe on Friday. The agency, which has compiled the monthly data series since 2015/2016, will report data for the final day of April next week. ‘Loophole’ allowing for deforestation on soya farms in Brazil’s Amazon 

April is the third monthly record this year, after new highs were also observed in January and February. Destruction of the Brazilian Amazon in the first four months of the year also hit a record for the period of 1,954 square km (754 square miles), an increase of 69% compared to the same period of 2021, clearing an area more than double the size of New York City. Deforestation in the Amazon has soared since rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro took office in 2019 and weakened environmental protection. Bolsonaro argues that more farming and mining in the Amazon will reduce poverty in the region.
‘Record after record’: Brazil’s Amazon deforestation hits April high, nearly double previous peak | Brazil | The Guardian


RE: Acceleration - Admin - 08-27-2022

Quote:Sometimes it’s easy to miss the forest for the trees. We spend so much time on what’s in front of us, we can miss the bigger picture. Alarm bells are going off across the world. We need to hear them. An extreme heatwave and drought has been roasting China for 70 days straight, something that “has no parallel in modern record-keeping in China, or elsewhere around the world for that matter.”

Next door, in Pakistan, a “torrential downpour of biblical proportions” has so far killed 900 people and destroyed nearly 100,000 homes. Its neighbour India has suffered 200 heatwave days this year so farcompared to just 32 last year. South Korea received it’s  the heaviest hourly downpour in Seoul for 80 years, flooding the capital and leaving 50 cities and towns with landslide warnings.

The West has not been spared of course. The July heatwave that blanketed the US set 350 high temperature records across the country and killed more people than other extreme weather events such as floods and hurricanes. Europe is going through the worst drought in 500 years, and England has experienced the worst drought and heatwave since 1976. The expected thunderstorms just add to the sense of unpredictability.
Climate crisis: Alarm bells are going off across the world – but we’re barely listening | The Independent