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Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - Printable Version

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Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 03-13-2016

From Salon..

Then there’s Bobby Jindal, who decimated Louisiana. The state currently faces a projected $1.6 billion budget deficit after passing huge tax cuts. To pay for the cuts, Jindal cut higher education spending so much that “rats scurry through dormitories” at one historically black college. Even conservative commentator Rod Dreher writes, “If Bobby Jindal’s presidential campaign goes anywhere, it will not be because of his record governing Louisiana, but in spite of it” in a blog post titled “How Bobby Jindal Wrecked Louisiana.” The Washington Post recently reported that Jindal’s policies are at the edge of fiscal collapse:


Quote:A few universities will shut down and declare bankruptcy. Graduations will be canceled. Students will lose scholarships. Select hospitals will close. Patients will lose funding for treatment of disabilities. Some reports of child abuse will go uninvestigated.

The Post created a helpful chart (see below) to show how Jindal’s massive tax cuts blew a hole in the budget and how college students ended up picking up the tab. Luckily, the state now has a Democratic governor, whose first priority was an executive order to accept the Medicaid expansion, which will add 450,000 formerly uninsured people to the Medicaid rolls.
[img=570x0]http://media.salon.com/2016/03/Salon49.3.png[/img]
In Kansas, Sam Brownback’s massive tax cuts haven’t spurred the growth he projected they would, but instead wreaked havoc on the state’s budget. As the Kansas City Star reports,

Quote:“Gov. Sam Brownback’s income tax-cut plan to spur job growth in Kansas has become a full-time disaster. On Friday, the state announced it had lost 3,000 total jobs in August. That’s on top of the 5,100 jobs lost in July.”

The result is a nearly $1 billion budget gap that has led to cuts to funding for schools and highways. In glorious Republican tradition,these cuts disproportionately affected poor children and children of color. The Boston Globe reports that the state is now being sued on constitutional grounds after poor schools were forced to close early and eliminate summer school. Brownback also cut funding for healthcare programs that would benefit the poor and children, money for veterans, and programs to help children read. He recently had to slash spending for higher education and increase taxes on cigarettes (which predominantly impact the poor). Research suggests that this is the norm: Economist Howard Chernick finds that “Party control by Republicans is associated with a more regressive tax structure” at the state and local level.

Bad Republican governance isn’t confined to the South. Maine’s Paul LePage is such a stunningly unpopular governor that members of his own party have joined with Democrats to challenge his vetoes. (In many cases the Legislature overrode his vetoes unanimously.) Chris Christie has wrecked the economy of New Jersey and former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell was recentlyconvicted of corruption (a difficult crime to commit in a time when money flows so freely through the political system).

Tyler Cowen positively cites Illinois, where Bruce Rauner bought himself into the governor’s mansion and immediately pushed for a right-to-work law. His then began slashing public spending,including more than $106 million in cuts to Medicaid, including millions for the elderly poor. He then slashed funding for domestic violence shelters and programs for homeless youth. Rauner’s draconian cuts to higher education may lead to the closure of the only Chicago public college that predominately serves black students.

In contrast, of course, one might cite the experience of California, which under a Democratic governor has chalked up a $2 billion surpluspassed the strongest gender pay gap bill in the country,reduced the uninsured rate by half and tackled climate change by increasing renewable fuels.

In one sense, Cowen is right: Republican states are better run if you are a wealthy white man. The Republican model — turning the government into a patronage machine for plutocrats — is extremely beneficial to the rich. If you are more concerned with the top marginal tax rate than orphaned children being left vulnerable to serial abuse, the mass closure of domestic violence shelters, and public education, Republicans are indeed good at state-level governance. If you think that environmental regulations should be abolished so corporations can dump their waste in communities of color, Republicans are indeed good at governance. The ideology by which conservatives govern lets the powerful exploit and oppress the weak. Or as libertarians call it, “freedom.”


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - Martin K - 03-14-2016

Is it surprising? Republicans predicted gloom and doom when Clinton raised taxes. The predicted boom as a result of the Bush tax cuts never really came off the ground either, and Obama has actually raised taxes on the rich but the economy seems to have digested this fairly well.

I think Romney during the 2012 campaign promised to bring unemployment back to 6%, I'm sure he would have been hailed as the savior of the US economy had he become president..


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 03-14-2016

Yea, Martin. Tax cuts can make sense, but it depends where and what tax cuts. I think they could make sense in places like France and Italy, but the kind of blanket tax cuts for the wealthy have actually been counterproductive.

Even the showcase for these, the Reagan tax cuts are not what supply-side mythology makes of them. The initial spurt of growth was mostly the Fed lowering interest rate after it had killed inflation, and the tax cuts did do little for investment (which should be their main transmission mechanism in the trickle down world of supply-side economics). However:

Quote:Since 1980, U.S. investment as a percentage of GDP was sliced in half, from nearly 24 percent to 12 percent, leaving the United States 174th in the world. The result was a dearth of real value added products and productivity.
There Has Not Been Any Supply-Side Revolution | Seeking Alpha


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 03-14-2016

Somebody has been trying to convince us that Jindal really is a standup guy and his fiscal record very good, all that on the basis of analysis from downsizinggovernment.org, a website from the Cato Institute.

Somehow we're underwhelmed, some stuff from that article

Quote:Per capita state spending has fallen from $2,089 in 2009 to $1,883 in 2015, a decrease of 10 percent. This spending restraint is quite remarkable. For comparison, per capita state spending grew nationally by 8.5 percent during the same time period. 

One way that Jindal reduced spending was cutting the state’s workforce. State government employment has decreased 26 percent since he’s been governor, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, he passed broad pension reforms. All state employees hired after July 2013 receive a cash-balance retirement plan, similar to a 401(k) plan, instead of a traditional defined-benefit pension. 

Jindal has also cut state higher education spending. State higher education spending fell from $1.1 billion a year in 2009 to $535 million in 2015. His 2016 budget includes further cuts to the state higher education system, but the cuts were avoided in a last-minute budget deal under a complicated financing structure. Jindal’s strong fiscal record is partly undercut by Louisiana’s generous economic development programs, i.e., corporate welfare.
Bobby Jindal’s Fiscal Record | Downsizing the Federal Government

Let us recapitulate:
  • In a time of severe crisis and a deleveraging private sector (that is, paying off debt and cutting spending), Jindal cut public spending and especially severe cuts to its workforce.
  • He als halved the spending on higher education and would have made further cuts if not thwarted.
  • He doled out money on corporations (film tax credits, a baseball team)
And this is supposed to be a success for market fundamentalists..


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 04-20-2016

From AP

In Kansas, lawmakers lose patience with governor's tax cuts

By JOHN HANNA
15 hours ago

TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — After he became Kansas governor in 2011, Sam Brownback slashed personal income taxes on the promise that the deep cuts would trigger a furious wave of hiring and expansion by businesses.

But the "shot of adrenaline" hasn't worked as envisioned, and the state budget has been in crisis ever since. Now many of the same Republicans who helped pass Brownback's plan are in open revolt, refusing to help the governor cut spending so he can avoid rolling back any of his signature tax measures.

If Brownback won't reconsider any of the tax cuts, they say, he will have to figure out for himself how to balance the budget in the face of disappointing revenue.

"Let him own it," Republican Rep. Mark Hutton said. "It's his policy that put us there."

Tax collections missed projections in 11 months of the last year. A growing number of Brownback's conservative allies want to scale back the tax cuts to ease the budget crunch.

Brownback took office on a pledge to make Kansas friendlier to business and successfully sought to cut the top personal income tax rate by 29 percent and exempt more than 330,000 farmers and business owners from income taxes. The moves were popular in a Legislature where the GOP holds three-quarters of the seats.

The governor argued that Kansas had to attract more businesses after a "lost decade" in the early 2000s, when private sector employment declined more than 4 percent.

The predicted job growth from business expansions hasn't happened, leaving the state persistently short of money. Since November, tax collections have fallen about $81 million, or 1.9 percent below the current forecast's predictions.

"We're growing weary," said Senate President Susan Wagle, a conservative Republican from Wichita. While GOP legislators still support low income taxes, "we'd prefer to see some real solutions coming from the governor's office," she said.

Last month, Brownback ordered $17 million in immediate reductions to universities and earlier this month delayed $93 million in contributions to pensions for school teachers and community college employees. The state has also siphoned off more than $750 million from highway projects to other parts of the budget over the past two years.

Lawmakers are worried about approving any further reductions in an election year. All 40 Senate seats and 125 House seats are on the ballot in November.

Democrats have long described Brownback's tax cuts as reckless. Republican critics want to repeal the personal income tax break for farmers and business owners to raise an additional $200 million to $250 million a year.

Debate over the next budget will intensify after lawmakers return from a recess later this month. They could follow through on their threat by adjourning without making specific reductions and leaving the governor with the authority to do so. He faces fewer repercussions because he will not appear on the ballot again before leaving office in January 2019.

Brownback rejected earlier calls to scale back the tax cuts and shows no signs of backing down.

He declined to be interviewed about the lawmakers' unusual demand until new revenue projections are released Wednesday. Spokeswoman Eileen Hawley said the governor will release proposals afterward for balancing the budget, but, "a plan to raise taxes on small businesses or anyone else will not be among them."

Brownback blames the economic sluggishness — the state ranked 43rd in total personal income growth in 2015 — on slumps in agriculture, energy production and aircraft manufacturing.

"You've got some global issues that are going on that we have absolutely no control over," Brownback told reporters at a recent news conference.

But Scott Drenkard, an economist for the conservative Tax Foundation, told legislators last month that farmers and business owners appeared to pocket the extra money from the state's recent tax cuts rather than use it for expansion — "tax avoidance, not job creation."

The state's personal income tax collections dropped 24 percent during its 2014 budget year, down $713 million. They've increased since, but the official projection for the 2017 fiscal year is less than $2.5 billion — still 15 percent off the 2013 peak.

Meanwhile, Kansas reported gaining only 800 private-sector jobs between March 2015 and March 2016, a mere 0.1 percent increase.

Last year, legislators plugged part of the budget gap by increasing sales and cigarette taxes as part of a $400 million revenue-raising package.

Brownback's administration has floated the idea of selling off the state's rights to future tobacco settlement payments, but lawmakers have been cold to such borrowing.

The continuing budget turmoil has been "just amateurish," said Republican Sen. Jim Denning, a former conservative ally of Brownback's who has become a critic. "I'm not happy with how things played out."


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 07-21-2016

Still not really working..


Quote:By all of these measures, Indiana’s economy has not sunk under Pence, even if it hasn’t significantly outpaced the national trends. But Pence also claimed that “conservative principles work every time you put them into practice.” And while his record-setting income tax break may not have been terribly big, other Republican governors have put conservative principles to work with huge tax cuts and reaped the rewards of budget crises and economic shocks.

After Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback ® passed a package of tax cuts in 2012 and 2013, the budget has stayed on the verge of deficit, lawmakers have had to slash spending on education and anti-poverty programs, its credit rating has been downgraded, and job growth has been slow. Former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal ®instituted tax cuts that have thrown his state into a budget crisis that is endangering basic services like hospitals and child protection agencies. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker ® cut taxes by more than $4.7 billion, yet the state’s job growth has lagged behind the neighboring state of Minnesota and poverty has risen. Meanwhile, the tax cuts have been far more costly than originally thought and led to a huge budget deficit.
Why Mike Pence Doesn't Deserve Much Credit For Indiana's Economic Performance | ThinkProgress


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - Martin K - 07-21-2016

Hello STPIOC, I think you forgot to mention this from the article, quite funny:


Quote:Pence has boasted about the tax cuts he oversaw, and Trump himself bragged that Pence had “enacted the largest income tax cut in the state’s history” when he introduced him as his running mate. But that is not actually saying much. During Pence’s tenure, Indiana’s income tax rate was reduced from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent beginning in 2015, and it will drop again to 3.23 percent at the beginning of 2017. That’s the largest cut because it is one of just two income tax cuts in the state’s history, according to an economist who has studied the state’s tax policy for 30 years. The other cut was a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 1970s.



RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 08-02-2016

Kansas right-wing experiment is going from bad to worse

Quote:Kansas has had trouble paying for much of anything since 2012, when conservative legislators decided to implement a bevy of right-wing economic policies—and lead their state into a fiscal crisis. In order to keep funding its government despite dramatically decreased tax revenue, the Legislature has flipped all its piggy banks. One of them is the Kansas Department of Transportation—or what sarcastic Kansans now call “the Bank of KDOT,” for the stupendous quantity of money that has been diverted from its coffers to the Kansas general fund and state agencies. Kneecapping the agency that builds roads isn’t just a great metaphor for Gov. Sam Brownback’s tenure. Like the cut to the state’s university funding, this damage will be most keenly felt years from now, when deferred maintenance and high debt loads take their toll.

As many expected, the reductions have been a calamity for the state's fiscal health. Kansas has found itself chronically short of funds, forcing legislators to slash spending on things like education and help for the poor. The state's credit rating has been downgraded, and for all the trouble, its job growth has been absolutely anemic.
Right-wing experiment on Kansas' roads - Business Insider

Could this be a forebode of what is going to happen if this stuff is implemented nationally? Look here.


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 08-03-2016

Well, sooner or later, this had to happen..

Quote:After giving Gov. Sam Brownback ® a free hand to turn Kansas into a science lab for hard-right policy experiments for more than five disastrous years, voters finally yanked the leash Tuesday night. At least 11 separate conservative members of the legislature lost their primaries to more moderate Republicans in the state, with a number of contests still too close to call with confidence.

While the wave won’t unlock the statehouse doors for Democrats, who are dramatically outnumbered in both House and Senate, the primaries signal that voters share the frustration that some Kansas Republicans have begun to voice with Brownback’s unbreakable commitment to trickle-down economic policies that have left Kansas so insolvent it can’t pay for a basic public education system.
The Brownbacklash Is Finally Here: Kansas Primary Voters Send Conservatives Packing | ThinkProgress


RE: Those Republican tax cuts at the state level.. - stpioc - 08-10-2016

Kansas not really working out..

Quote:Kansas’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at half the rate of national GDP in 2015, according to new projections from the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Research Department, marking another year of sluggish growth since Kansas enacted massive tax cuts meant to spur its economy. Kansas’ huge tax cuts took effect at the start of 2013.  That year, Kansas’ economy actually shrank, even as the national economy grew.  Then, in 2014, Kansas’ economy managed some growth, but still lagged national growth.  And the state’s new projections for 2015 find that Kansas’ real GDP will grow by 1.2 percent this year, half the 2.4 percent projected nationally.  (See chart.)
Kansas’ Economic Growth Continues to Lag, Despite Tax Cuts | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Quote:Instead of adding the 25,000 jobs a year that Brownback promised, Kansas actually lost 5,400 jobs over the 12 months ending in February.
Kansas Tried Tax Cuts. Its Neighbor Didn't. Guess Which Worked. - Bloomberg View

Quote:But those who will evaluate a revised Trump tax cut proposal should keep something in mind: Moore and Laffer were principal architects of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback’s massive tax cuts, and their predictions that those tax cuts would spur an “immediate” Kansas economic boom have proved strikingly inaccurate. In fact, the tax cut failed to boost the Kansas economy:
  • Since it took effect in January 2013, total employment in Kansas has risen only 2.4 percent, compared to 6.5 percent nationally.  Private sector employment in Kansas has risen 3.2 percent, compared to 7.6 percent nationally.
  • The state’s economy has grown less than half as fast as the national economy; Kansas’ gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.3 percent from the end of 2012 through the end of 2015, while national GDP rose 11.5 percent.
  • Kansas’ share of newly opened business establishments in the United States has actually declined slightly rather than increased.[8]
Kansas’ Tax Cut Experience Refutes Economic Growth Predictions of Trump Tax Advisors | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Fiscally, things are even worse:

Quote:Moreover, the Kansas tax cut package has had a deleterious impact on the state’s financial stability and the provision of critical services.  For example:
  • Personal income tax revenues in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2016 (fiscal year 2016) were almost $700 million lower than those received in fiscal year 2013,[9] when the tax cut first took effect, even though the economy nationally is stronger in 2016 than it was in 2013.  Receipts dropped immediately by slightly more than $700 million (24 percent), and the meager economic growth that occurred in Kansas from 2014 to 2016 boosted collections by only $30 million, or less than 2 percent.[10]
  • Total General Fund revenues in 2016 were $570 million below 2013 levels, despite significant sales and cigarette tax increases enacted to partially offset the income tax losses.[11]  The General Fund’s ending balance fell from $709 million in 2013 to $40 million in 2016 (just 0.7 percent of General Fund spending).[12]  That’s important because Kansas’ General Fund balance is its “rainy day fund.”[13]  Should a recession hit and tax revenues shrink as household incomes and retail sales fall, the state will need to cut programs or enact tax increases almost immediately because it will have very little savings to tap. 
  • The General Fund’s depletion occurred even though the state transferred to the Fund substantial tax revenues that were collected to finance road maintenance and construction.[14]  The resulting reduction in infrastructure funding has forced the state to postpone numerous highway projects indefinitely.[15]
  • Because the tax cuts leave less state revenue with which to repay people who lend the state money by buying its bonds, Kansas’ bond rating has been downgraded twice — in 2014, and most recently on July 26, 2016.[16]  Lower bond ratings mean that the state will likely have to pay a higher interest rate on future borrowings, raising the cost of infrastructure projects such as school construction and road building.
Kansas’ Tax Cut Experience Refutes Economic Growth Predictions of Trump Tax Advisors | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities